“It’s not about ‘having’ time. It’s about making time. If it matters, you will make time.” – Unknown

Stakeholders in the marijuana space have been anxiously awaiting news about rescheduling marijuana since the Biden administration announced its intention to consider rescheduling in August 2023. And while we are less than a year into the new Trump administration, there are increasingly fewer signals that rescheduling is a reality in the short term. There are also more questions about what rescheduling would look like should it eventually occur. 

Let’s level set on one thing: Regardless of how you perceive President Trump as a chief executive or a person, you’d be very rich if you could predict with any measure of certainty whether — and particularly when — he will do almost anything when it comes to policy positions. Congress? Not much more predictable. Heck, the current makeup can’t even keep the government open. So, we enter this discussion with a hefty dose of uncertainty by virtue of the makeup of our leadership. 

That said, for those operating in the cannabis industry, the questions of whether, and if so when, marijuana will be rescheduled are at least thought by many to be hugely consequential.

Being a cannabis-focused marketplace of ideas, we’ll give the rescheduling concept a shot.

President Trump’s Views on Marijuana and Rescheduling 

My personal view is that President Trump has many more issues occupying his thoughts other than marijuana reform. I really don’t think he cares much about it at all and likely won’t stand in the way of any actions taken by his administration or Congress to reform marijuana rules. Publicly, he has been difficult to pin down on the issue. And that’s not to say he hasn’t explained to some extent his views on marijuana; rather it is challenging, all though not necessarily impossible, to know where he stands.

As just one example, when Florida (his home state) was considering adult-use cannabis, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he would be voting in favor of a proposed amendment to the Florida Constitution that would have allowed adults age 21 years or older to possess, purchase, or use marijuana products and marijuana accessories for non-medical personal consumption.

In the same post, he spoke more broadly about his personal views and gave insight as to how friendly his administration may be to those in the cannabis industry. Trump stated:

As President, we will continue to focus on research to unlock the medical uses of marijuana to a Schedule 3 drug, and work with Congress to pass common sense laws, including safe banking for state authorized companies, and supporting states’ rights to pass marijuana laws, like in Florida, that work so well for their citizens.

In an interview, Trump doubled down. He described medical marijuana as “amazing.” 

On the other hand, Trump did not take steps to promote rescheduling marijuana during his first term, and, despite a great deal of noise and headlines, he has not affirmatively pushed for rescheduling at the federal level during his second term. Is that a signal that he is not serious about rescheduling or that he just hasn’t gotten around to it? Maybe neither, but maybe it’s worth examining the view of his key medical advisors to see if we can discern whether marijuana is a priority for the president.

What Do Trump’s Key Advisors Think About Marijuana Rescheduling?

This is where it somehow gets less clear. The key players in a rescheduling decision will be Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert Kennedy, Jr., DEA Administrator Terrance Cole, and Attorney General Pam Bondi. Let’s take a look at what each has said about rescheduling.

As part of her confirmation hearing, Bondi responded to a series of questions regarding whether she would continue the Biden administration’s efforts to reschedule marijuana with identical responses: “If confirmed, I will give the matter careful consideration after consulting with appropriate Department officials.” And look, I get it, the name of the game in a confirmation hearing is, for better or worse, to avoid saying things that will garner “no” votes. Still, her testimony is hardly an endorsement of rescheduling. It’s also worth noting that as Florida’s attorney general, Bondi opposed efforts to legalize medical cannabis in the state.

Cole testified at his confirmation hearing that he would make examining the rescheduling a priority under his tenure, but just last week the DEA stated in a court filing that the marijuana rescheduling process remains stalled at the stage it has been on for months.

And to round out the circular firing squad, Kennedy declined to endorse marijuana rescheduling during his confirmation hearings, instead stating that he would defer to the Department of Justice and DEA.

So, to wrap up this little vignette, we have the secretary of Health and Human Services saying that he will defer to a DEA administrator who has not been able to move rescheduling forward and an attorney general with, at best, mixed views on rescheduling. I suspect I speak for many interested in the outcome of the rescheduling debate when I ask who is going to make the first move, or whether these positions essentially equate to a shell game designed to draw out the process without anyone having to take a stance?

What About Congress Reforming Marijuana Policy?

You may also consider whether Congress has the appetite to take on the issue of marijuana reform. Bless your heart. Loyal Budding Trends readers (and our analytics suggest that there are dozens of you… dozens!) know that Congress has been considering marijuana reform efforts for more than a decade.

To get a sense of how frustratingly hopeless Congressional inaction has been, I’ll note that 70% of all Americans, and even a majority of Republicans, support some form of marijuana legalization, and yet Congress will not act. Tell me three other issues that 70% of Americans agree on right now that is not becoming law!

I think the answer may lie if we look at an episode of The West Wing. In it, the character played by the sublime Marlee Matlin used polling numbers on a proposed amendment banning flag burning to explain why it is important not just to ask how people view an issue but also how much they care about that issue. People who consume marijuana or make a living tied to the marijuana industry, as well as those who vehemently oppose marijuana use, obviously feel strongly about the issue of rescheduling. Maybe some of the Congressional inaction reflects that a sufficient number of constituents are not demonstrating that they care enough about the issue to move the needle. 

So, What’s It Gonna Be? Reschedule or Not?

As of this writing, I do not have confidence that the federal government will reschedule marijuana in the short term. The president is not making marijuana rescheduling a priority in his administration. His key advisors seem stuck in a game of chicken where nobody wants to take a stance and everyone appears to be looking for someone else to make the next move. And popular sentiment, while seemingly strong, has not yet shown that it can motivate our leaders to action.

Oh, and if I’m wrong (which has been known to happen) and the federal government does reschedule marijuana, I still do not have confidence that the market can reasonably predict how the federal government will treat marijuana differently than it does now, if at all. Check this out.

In the meantime, we’ll stay on it so you don’t have to. Thanks for stopping by.